By Leslie W Chan
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Extra info for The Taching oilfield: A Maoist model for economic development (Contemporary China papers)
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Held] ... 83 Aside from senior unsecured debt securities, OTC derivatives accounted for the largest source of third-party exposure. In fact derivatives claims were filed in greater amounts than unsecured debt claims, although they have also been reduced to a much greater degree. 84 Apart from the fact that these claims are duplicative, both the Initial Plan and, to a greater degree, the Amended Plans indicate that the filings significantly overstate exposure, because many might have been exaggerated or invalid.
These contracts have multiple equilibria. If confidence is maintained, there can be efficient risk sharing, because in that equilibrium a withdrawal will indicate that a depositor should withdraw under optimal risk sharing. If agents panic, there is a bank run and incentives are distorted. In that equilibrium, everyone rushes in to withdraw their deposits before the bank gives out all of its assets. 51 When short-term creditors of a maturitytransforming firm develop suspicions that the firm is verging on insolvency, the creditors have a rational motivation to withdraw funding before the firm’s supply of liquid reserves is drained by others responding to the same incentives.
In addition the fact that the assets become information sensitive means that some market participants will have superior information to other market participants (“asymmetric information”). , buying at a price higher than the asset is worth given existing information). According to this model, the sudden shift in information sensitivity, coupled with asymmetric information, is the root cause of contagion. The response to asymmetric information pushes asset prices below their fundamental value. This amplifies the original idiosyncratic shock that caused the market to become information sensitive, and the market plunge can lead to systemic crisis.