By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Uncertainty is a basic attribute of climate, seasonal weather, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is whole with out a description of its uncertainty. powerful verbal exchange of uncertainty is helping humans larger comprehend the chance of a selected occasion and improves their skill to make judgements in line with the forecast. still, for many years, clients of those forecasts were conditioned to obtain incomplete information regarding uncertainty. they've got turn into used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the hot temperature may be 70 levels Farenheit nine days from now") and utilized their very own event in opting for how a lot self assurance to put within the forecast. such a lot forecast items from the private and non-private sectors, together with these from the nationwide Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s nationwide climate provider, proceed this deterministic legacy. thankfully, the nationwide climate provider and others within the prediction neighborhood have well-known the necessity to view uncertainty as a primary a part of forecasts. via partnering with different segments of the neighborhood to appreciate consumer wishes, generate suitable and wealthy informational items, and make the most of powerful communique automobiles, the nationwide climate provider can take a number one position within the transition to common, powerful incorporation of uncertainty info into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes strategies to the nationwide climate carrier and the wider prediction neighborhood on tips on how to make this transition.
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Additional info for Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts
Example text
2 PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS IN INTERPRETING AND USING UNCERTAIN INFORMATION This section reviews some established results from the psychology of risk and uncertainty; that is, what is known about the way in which people deal with risk and uncertainty and how they understand and utilize uncertainty information? It begins by describing several psychological dimensions relevant to the communication of uncertainty information on which potential users of weather and climate forecasts are known to differ.
And in many cases, flood management decisions are, in essence, already made for them, determined well in advance by land-use patterns, existing infrastructure, and rigid operating rules. In such an environment, these resource constraints—in addition to technical capacity, familiar and comfortable routines, and even personal relationships with trusted advisers—triumph over scientific information, especially when different sources of hydrometeorological information and guidance conflict. Flood managers thus often retreat to simple analyses and actions that, while perhaps not fully incorporating the best science and uncertainty information available, are nonetheless logical and defensible.
1 Continued information on the continuously changing evacuation times and conditions, could be of great value to a number of key groups, such as emergency managers, in these high-pressure decision situations. However, it is not yet clear to what degree such tools were used during Hurricane Katrina. A key approach in catastrophic events is to communicate information in a clear, consistent manner. In addition, those disseminating information must understand and communicate the accuracy of the forecast and the potential consequences.